Part Two-Quick And Dirty Water Cooler Cheat Sheet For The London Olympics

 Let’s dive right into part two of my London Olympic 2012 track preview. 

This go round were looking at the 400 meters, 400 meter hurdles, 1500 and the sprint relays.

400 meters Men

Where have all the great Jamaican quarter-milers gone? It has been a very long time (by my account, Bert Cameron in the 1980’s) since Jamaica has had a 400 meter world beater. Unfortunately I don’t see that changing this year.

Lashawn Merritt of the USA is the favorite going into the Olympics. He has the fastest time in the world this year and has been running consistently well all season. Tony McQuay of the USA, the impressive youngster Luquelin Santos of the Dominican Republic and Kirani James of Grenada are also medal contenders. James won the World Championships last year in a great finish beating Merritt at the line.

If anyone can defeat Lashawn Merritt, James is the guy. Barring injury however, I don't see it happening; Merritt should get the gold medal, James silver and McQuay bronze. 

400 meter Women

This race is sure to be interesting for several reasons. Jamaican born American star Sanya Richards-Ross is the presumptive favorite. She has been simultaneously the best and the must uneven 400 runner for the last six years. She has never won an individual 400 meter Olympic gold, but was on both the 2004 and 2008 4 x 400 relay teams. She has finished first overall in the Golden League circuit three times, and won the World Indoor and Outdoor 400 meter titles. 

Richards-Ross will be hard pressed by a pair of Russians, Antonina Krivoshapka and Yulia Gushchina as well as Amantle Montsho of Botswana who is the defending World champion from 2011. 

Richards-Ross is a great runner, but seemed to have worn down in the 2008 Olympics and the 2011 Worlds. She will have a battle on her hands with the two Russians, Montsho and Jamaica’s Novolene Williams-Mills.

Sanya is overdue for an Olympic title, and I think she gets it in London.

400 Meter Hurdles Women

This is a wide open race with several legitimate contenders. Lashinda Demus of the USA, Kaliese Spencer and Melaine Walker of Jamaica, Perri Shakes-Drayton of the UK, Natalya Antyukh of Russia, Vania Stambolova of Bulgaria all can be considered serious contenders for the gold. Demus is a veteran and the World champion from last year. Melaine is the 2008 Olympic champion and Antyukh has the fastest time in the world this year. 

If you want a long shot for this event, I would say T’erra Brown of the US could sneak onto the podium.

As a footnote, I believe that unlike the quarter-milers, Jamaica’s future in this event is very bright. Jenieve Russell, who just won the World Junior Championships for Jamaica in this event and Ristianana Tracy are on a trajectory of greatness and come 2016 they will be major factors. T'erra Brown and Queen Harrison  should likewise be carrying the torch high for the US in the near future.

400 Meter Hurdles Men

Javier Culson of Puerto Rico is the prohibitive favorite. His all out, run from the front style seems to lack tactical substance, but no one has caught him yet. David Greene of Great Britain is his closest competition and if Culson wears down running the rounds of this grueling event Greene could win gold for the home team.

I think Culson is ripe for an upset here.  Greene is my pick to win gold for the hometown folks.

1500 meters men

This event should probably be renamed ‘the Kenyan Invitational’ to reflect their dominance.  Asbel Kiprop, Silas Kiplagat and Nixon Kiplimo Chepseba between them have the five fastest times of the year. 

I think Kiplagat wins this, but one thing’s for sure: a Kenyan will be taking home the gold medal and he wont be alone on the podium.

1500 women

Mariem Alaoui Selsouli of Morocco, Abeba Arigawe of Ethiopia and Asli Çakir Alptekin of Turkey are all contenders, but I think Arigawe and Genzebe Dibaba of Ethiopia will be battling for the gold.

Sprint relays – 4X100 men and women

In the men’s relay, this is a Jamaica versus USA duel. The US has a troubling recent history of failing to pass the baton all the way around, but if they do, they have enough great runners to make this a very tight race. Trinidad should also be in the mix for a medal. 

Unless there is a miscue, It should finish Jamaica, USA, Trinidad in that order.

In the womens race, the USA teams have had the same issues in recent years that plague the men.  They should also take it down to the line with Jamaica if they can pass the stick, but that has proven to be a big if. 

Bahamas, Germany, Trinidad and Russia should also be competitive, but barring any mishaps, I think the USA wins this in a close race over Jamaica.

4X400 men

The USA has a stranglehold on this event.  The 1988, 1992, 1996, 2004 and 2008 teams all won gold medals. The 2000 USA team also won, but that medal was stripped because more than half the team (Jerome Young, Alvin & Calvin Harrison and Antonio Pettigrew) used performance enhancing drugs.

Jamaica has reached the podium on a few occasions during that 22 year stretch, and so has Great Britain. In 2012, No one is challenging the USA domination of this event. That teams wins in a walk, with Jamaica, Belgium, Trinidad, Bahamas and Great Britain fighting for silver and bronze. 

If-and it’s a big if-the USA stumbles, I think Belgium, led by the Borlee brothers, will win gold.

4X400 women

This will be a lot more competitive than the men’s race, at least until they get to the anchor legs. The USA has a team that should win, but they will be challenged by a few strong contingents; Great Britain, Jamaica, France and Ukraine all have more than a punchers chance to win the gold.

I think it comes down to this: If the USA is trailing going into the anchor leg by more than a couple of meters, they will lose. If Sanya Richards-Ross running the anchor leg gets the baton in first place, it will be a laugher for the USA.

Bonus: 

One of the most entertaining races will be the women’s 5000 meters. Meseret Defar of Ethiopia and Vivian Cheruyiot of Kenya have competed against each other several times this year in both the 3000 and the 5000 meters and each race has been a thrilling down to the wire affair.

Defar is the most decorated distance runner of the last decade, an amazing athlete who has won medals and set records at every major international meet, indoor and outdoor. She has lowered her own world record on three occasions between 2005 and 2008, and still owns the indoor world records in the 3000 and 5000 meters.

Cheruyiot is the younger of the two and over the last couple of years, the more consistent. In what is most likely Defar’s last hurrah, she will want to go out with another gold medal, but Cheruyiot may want to start her reign at the top now rather than later. 

This is too close to call, but it should be great to watch.

Let the Games begin!

Quick And Dirty Water Cooler Cheat Sheet For The London Olympics.

With a month to go before the 2012 London Olympics, all eyes, bets and conversation will be centered on the many track events that will be hotly contested and as of right now, wide open.

With all due respect to the American press and media, the100 meter finals is, was and will continue to be The blue riband event of the entire Olympics. Swimming is popular, so is gymnastics and boxing, but no high-ranking government officials worldwide are involved in scalping ticketsfor those events. 

At every Olympics, track and field reigns and the sprints are the crown jewel.

This year, the competition for events ranging from the 100 to the 10,000 meters will be hotly contested. Conventional wisdom has been turned on its head, with many familiar names coming up short and newcomers shouldering their way to the fore.

That being said, I’m going to give you the first part of my official “Quick And Dirty Water Cooler Cheat Sheet For The London Olympics.”

General disclaimer time: This is my outlook and preview on the events, not an inducement to wager money or services. But if you do wager and my selections are successful-which I fully expect them to be-I anticipate a small stipend as a token of gratitude.

So without further ado, here we go: 

Part one, the 100, 200 110/100 hurdles and 800.

100 meters, Men

The biggest name in track, Usain Bolt, has not looked sharp all season; some cynics have chalked it up to his enjoying his ‘global icon’ status. Others attribute it to other runners studying and stepping up to challenge Bolt, shrinking the gap he created in the historic 2008 Olympics. 

Yohan Blake has the pedigree to be the best sprinter in the world. He has been the ‘next big thing’ since his high school days at St. Jago and his desire is unquestioned. 

The only real contenders for this title are as follows:

Usain Bolt-Defending champ and as of right now, quite possibly the most motivated runner in the world.

Yohan Blake-Peaking at the right time and definitely the one to beat.

Justin Gatlin-He beat Asafa early in the year and hasn’t stopped chirping since. He’s running for bronze but if anyone slips up Gatlin could surprise.

Asafa Powell-Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “Asafa is running better than he ever has, but…” Powell has the talent to win but not the intestinal fortitude. He’s a medal contender but not really a challenger for the gold.

Tyson Gay-Broke down a year ago trying to catch up and keep up with Bolt. He’s running well but sparingly. Can he hold up through the grueling rounds to really challenge in London? I don’t see him getting on the podium.

Prediction: Blake first, Bolt second, Gatlin third.

100 meters women

This is a three woman race. Set aside the US Olympic Trials Felix/Tarmoh mess for a second, as neither woman should factor in this race in London. This event will come down to Carmelita Jeter of the US, Veronica Campbell-Brown and Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce.

Not every athlete can succeed in a world championship setting like the Olympics. Some runners, on any given day running one race, can be world beaters. In the Olympics you have to bring it, bring it and bring it again, often in the same day, consecutive days or several days in a short period. Many runners have been Diamond/Golden League superstars and wither by the time they get to the Olympic finals. 

Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce is not one of those. She shows up best when it counts the most, and if she gets a lead on the field the race is usually over.

Alyson Felix, Murielle Ahoure of the Ivory Coast, Kelly Ann Baptiste of Trinidad and Kerron Stewart of Jamaica all have the closing speed to crash that party, but I think this will end up as follows:

Fraser-Pryce first, Jeter second, VCB third.

200 meters men

This will have mostly the same cast of characters as the 100, except for Gay and Gatlin. The main challenge to Bolt and Blake will be American Wallace Spearmon, but he’s running for bronze. There could be a Jamaican sweep, but like Gay in the 100 meters, I am not sure how Warren Weir of Jamaica in his first major international championships will hold up through the heats, semis and final.

Bolt first, Blake second and Spearmon third.

200 meters women

This is one of the most competitive races in the entire slate of events. The top five female sprinters of the last decade will be in this one; Sanya Richards-Ross, Veronica Campbell-Brown, Alyson Felix, Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce, Carmelita Jeter.

Every single one of these women has at least one Olympic or World Championship gold medal on their resume. They are the cream of the crop in women’s sprinting and every one of them has a legitimate shot to win the gold. I think this will be best race of the entire Olympics.

VCB has had a very uneven season so far, but like Shelly Ann, she tends to raise her effort when it’s all on the line.

I think Veronica Campbell-Brown defends her 2008 Olympic gold medal, Alyson Felix second and Jeter third.

110 Hurdles, Men

This is another highly competitive race with a distinguished field. The biggest surprise going in is that David Oliver, the World Champion from 2008, did not make the US team. Personally, I could not see him getting on the podium with this field anyway, but rest assured, this race will be cracking.

Xiang Liu of China, Aries Merrit and Jason Richardson of the US, World Record holder Dayron Robles of Cuba, Hansle Parchment and the NCAA champion, Andrew Riley both of Jamaica are all medal contenders here.  I see this as a real fight between Robles and Xiang Liu, the two hurdlers involved in an infraction last year. (To those thatdidn’t see it, Robles was leading, Liu passed him, and Robles grabbed Liu’shand and slowed him down to a third place finish. Robles was disqualified and Richardson of the US awarded the gold and Liu the silver.)

00

This time around, Liu will leave no doubt. I think Liu wins this going away, with Robles, Merritt Parchment and Richardson vying for second and third. Don’t be surprised if Robles’ world record of 12.87 falls in this race.

100 Hurdles, Women

As competitive as the men’s race will be, this will be just as anti-climatic. Sally Pearson of Australia was the silver medalist in 2008, the race notorious for Lolo Jones’ stumble on the last hurdle.

Pearson has dominated the event since Beijing, putting yards of daylight between her and everyone else. She has 3 of the 5 fastest times of the year going into this Olympics and has been more dominant than Jones was going into 2008. If healthy, she should win easily.  Brigitte Foster-Hylton of Jamaica, Dawn Harper and Kellie Wells of the US, Lolo Jones and Priscilla Lopes-Schliep of Canada are running for second and third.

Pearson first, Harper second, Foster-Hylton third and it’s not even close.

800 meters, Men

David Rudisha is the name to know in this event. He has the three fastest times this year and is a full 2 seconds faster than everyone else. He has talked about taking the world record into the 1:30’s and he is quite capable of it. Rudisha owns the world record of 1:41.01 and this is another record that could fall in London.

Rudisha first, Abubaker Kaki of Sudan second and Mohammed Aman of Ethiopia third.

800 meters, Women

This is going to be another interesting and highly competitive race.  Pamela Jelimo is the favorite here. She is coming into this Olympics as the defending champion, and she has been consistently under 2:00.00 in all of her 2012 races. 

Kenia Sinclair is the wild card. Quite possibly Jamaica’s best ever distance runner, Sinclair was in position for a medal in Beijing and faded down the stretch to 6^th place. She has run sparingly this season, but won the Jamaica Trials and could be a serious medal contender next month. 

Caster Semenya of South Africa, Fantu Magiso of Ethiopia and Irina Maracheva of Russia are all in the mix for a medal but Jelimo is the class of the field and should get the gold medal.

Jelimo first, Semenya second and Sinclair third.

Next week i'll give you part two, and yes, there will be more surprises!

Prepping for Penn Relays 2012

2012 is a big year for track and field participants and enthusiasts. The London Olympics are naturally the biggest event on the calendar, but there are a multitude of other events that should make this a very interesting season.

Already in 2012 we have had the World Indoor Championships, which featured a great couple of races for Sanya Richards-Ross, (400 meters and anchoring the silver medal 4x400 team) and a triumphant Justin Gatlin winning his first championship since his drug suspension, taking the 60 meter in a season best 6.46 seconds.


We also had the Boys and Girls Championships in Jamaica, where Calabar High School won the boys title with a great team effort. The girls title was won by Edwin Allen HS (R) breaking the nearly decade long stranglehold of Holmwood on first place.

And now, on the last weekend of April, comes the Penn Relays. This year Penn will be missing some of the biggest names. No Usain Bolt,  Yohan Blake or Asafa Powell  for Jamaica, but that doesn’t mean the stars wont be present.

Sanya Richards-Ross, Allyson Felix, the aforementioned Gatlin, Nesta Carter, Walter Dix and Kirani James are all named as participants in what should be a great weekend of races. I don’t see any real challenges to the American teams in the USA versus the World events, as while they have loaded teams competing in Philly this year, the other countries don’t seem to have the depth this year to beat them. As history has shown however, upsets at Franklin Field do happen.

Watch the Great Britain team competing in the Women's 4x400 relay in particular; they could spring a major surprise.

The high school relays are of particular interest to Jamaicans living in the US. Coming into this week, the top schools by time and event are as follows:

High school boys 4x100:
Kingston College                                   40.17            
Wolmers' Boys School                           40.21            
Munro College                                       40.41            
St. Elizabeth Technical High                 40.44              
Herbert Morrison Tech.                       40.55  
Jamaica College (under 16 team)         40.75
DeSoto HS (Texas)                 40.59

High School Boys 4x400:
Calabar HS(R) 3:10.19
DeSoto, Tx         3:14.88
Kingston College         3:12.64
Laurel HS (Maryland) 3:15:65
Boys & Girls, Brooklyn, NY     3:15.12
Jamaica College 3:13.64
Long Beach Poly         3:18:55



High School Girls 4x100:
Edwin Allen 45.28
Herbert Morrison 45.61
Boyd Anderson HS (Florida) 45.66
Long Beach Poly 46.04
Vere Technical 46.00
St. Jago HS 46.60
St. Andrews HS 46.93

High School Girls 4x400:
Vere Technical High                             3:38.91          
American Heritage HS (Florida) 3:43:15
St. Thomas Aquinas (Florida)         3:44:50
Holmwood Technical                               3:44.04          
Edwin Allen High                                 3:44.51          
St. Andrew High                                   3:45.07          


There should also be some great college races, with UWI, UTech and GC Foster competing with the traditional US college relay powerhouses; Florida, Texas A&M, LSU and Arkansas, who have all run under 39.70 this season.

One thing is for sure, this meet is not going to disappoint fans of track and field, and should give us a early look at some of the names we will see in London and also, maybe Brazil 2016.

Down goes Bolt

Sooo....instead of down goes Tyson, down goes Bolt.  The Diamond League meet today in Stockholm was the venue, initially billed as a clash of the three fastest sprinters ever turned into the 10 second massacre as Tyson Gay convincingly beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meter finals.

The worst thing a top flight athlete can ever do is think they can just show up and win; meaning turn on and off their intensity/focus to beat the competition. Before today, Gay may have said he could beat Bolt, but he hadn't, and had lost badly every time. Bolt came in unprepared to run his best and got beat. Its the equivalent of an out of shape, ill prepared Mike Tyson-the baddest man on the planet and the unbeaten heavyweight champion of the world, showing up to fight a no-name Buster Douglas in Tokyo so many years ago and being stunningly and convincingly beaten.

Now that the *aura* of invincibility around Bolt is gone, lets see how they both do going forward. Will Bolt go the route of Mike Tyson or the route of Mike Jordan-the other Mike that decided the challenges of basketball weren't enough, decided to try playing baseball and was an embarrassing failure?

Jordan came back to his senses and basketball to win the second of his three in a row championships and securing his place in the pantheon of greatest ever athletes. Tyson....not so much.