Quick And Dirty Water Cooler Cheat Sheet For The London Olympics.

With a month to go before the 2012 London Olympics, all eyes, bets and conversation will be centered on the many track events that will be hotly contested and as of right now, wide open.

With all due respect to the American press and media, the100 meter finals is, was and will continue to be The blue riband event of the entire Olympics. Swimming is popular, so is gymnastics and boxing, but no high-ranking government officials worldwide are involved in scalping ticketsfor those events. 

At every Olympics, track and field reigns and the sprints are the crown jewel.

This year, the competition for events ranging from the 100 to the 10,000 meters will be hotly contested. Conventional wisdom has been turned on its head, with many familiar names coming up short and newcomers shouldering their way to the fore.

That being said, I’m going to give you the first part of my official “Quick And Dirty Water Cooler Cheat Sheet For The London Olympics.”

General disclaimer time: This is my outlook and preview on the events, not an inducement to wager money or services. But if you do wager and my selections are successful-which I fully expect them to be-I anticipate a small stipend as a token of gratitude.

So without further ado, here we go: 

Part one, the 100, 200 110/100 hurdles and 800.

100 meters, Men

The biggest name in track, Usain Bolt, has not looked sharp all season; some cynics have chalked it up to his enjoying his ‘global icon’ status. Others attribute it to other runners studying and stepping up to challenge Bolt, shrinking the gap he created in the historic 2008 Olympics. 

Yohan Blake has the pedigree to be the best sprinter in the world. He has been the ‘next big thing’ since his high school days at St. Jago and his desire is unquestioned. 

The only real contenders for this title are as follows:

Usain Bolt-Defending champ and as of right now, quite possibly the most motivated runner in the world.

Yohan Blake-Peaking at the right time and definitely the one to beat.

Justin Gatlin-He beat Asafa early in the year and hasn’t stopped chirping since. He’s running for bronze but if anyone slips up Gatlin could surprise.

Asafa Powell-Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “Asafa is running better than he ever has, but…” Powell has the talent to win but not the intestinal fortitude. He’s a medal contender but not really a challenger for the gold.

Tyson Gay-Broke down a year ago trying to catch up and keep up with Bolt. He’s running well but sparingly. Can he hold up through the grueling rounds to really challenge in London? I don’t see him getting on the podium.

Prediction: Blake first, Bolt second, Gatlin third.

100 meters women

This is a three woman race. Set aside the US Olympic Trials Felix/Tarmoh mess for a second, as neither woman should factor in this race in London. This event will come down to Carmelita Jeter of the US, Veronica Campbell-Brown and Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce.

Not every athlete can succeed in a world championship setting like the Olympics. Some runners, on any given day running one race, can be world beaters. In the Olympics you have to bring it, bring it and bring it again, often in the same day, consecutive days or several days in a short period. Many runners have been Diamond/Golden League superstars and wither by the time they get to the Olympic finals. 

Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce is not one of those. She shows up best when it counts the most, and if she gets a lead on the field the race is usually over.

Alyson Felix, Murielle Ahoure of the Ivory Coast, Kelly Ann Baptiste of Trinidad and Kerron Stewart of Jamaica all have the closing speed to crash that party, but I think this will end up as follows:

Fraser-Pryce first, Jeter second, VCB third.

200 meters men

This will have mostly the same cast of characters as the 100, except for Gay and Gatlin. The main challenge to Bolt and Blake will be American Wallace Spearmon, but he’s running for bronze. There could be a Jamaican sweep, but like Gay in the 100 meters, I am not sure how Warren Weir of Jamaica in his first major international championships will hold up through the heats, semis and final.

Bolt first, Blake second and Spearmon third.

200 meters women

This is one of the most competitive races in the entire slate of events. The top five female sprinters of the last decade will be in this one; Sanya Richards-Ross, Veronica Campbell-Brown, Alyson Felix, Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce, Carmelita Jeter.

Every single one of these women has at least one Olympic or World Championship gold medal on their resume. They are the cream of the crop in women’s sprinting and every one of them has a legitimate shot to win the gold. I think this will be best race of the entire Olympics.

VCB has had a very uneven season so far, but like Shelly Ann, she tends to raise her effort when it’s all on the line.

I think Veronica Campbell-Brown defends her 2008 Olympic gold medal, Alyson Felix second and Jeter third.

110 Hurdles, Men

This is another highly competitive race with a distinguished field. The biggest surprise going in is that David Oliver, the World Champion from 2008, did not make the US team. Personally, I could not see him getting on the podium with this field anyway, but rest assured, this race will be cracking.

Xiang Liu of China, Aries Merrit and Jason Richardson of the US, World Record holder Dayron Robles of Cuba, Hansle Parchment and the NCAA champion, Andrew Riley both of Jamaica are all medal contenders here.  I see this as a real fight between Robles and Xiang Liu, the two hurdlers involved in an infraction last year. (To those thatdidn’t see it, Robles was leading, Liu passed him, and Robles grabbed Liu’shand and slowed him down to a third place finish. Robles was disqualified and Richardson of the US awarded the gold and Liu the silver.)

00

This time around, Liu will leave no doubt. I think Liu wins this going away, with Robles, Merritt Parchment and Richardson vying for second and third. Don’t be surprised if Robles’ world record of 12.87 falls in this race.

100 Hurdles, Women

As competitive as the men’s race will be, this will be just as anti-climatic. Sally Pearson of Australia was the silver medalist in 2008, the race notorious for Lolo Jones’ stumble on the last hurdle.

Pearson has dominated the event since Beijing, putting yards of daylight between her and everyone else. She has 3 of the 5 fastest times of the year going into this Olympics and has been more dominant than Jones was going into 2008. If healthy, she should win easily.  Brigitte Foster-Hylton of Jamaica, Dawn Harper and Kellie Wells of the US, Lolo Jones and Priscilla Lopes-Schliep of Canada are running for second and third.

Pearson first, Harper second, Foster-Hylton third and it’s not even close.

800 meters, Men

David Rudisha is the name to know in this event. He has the three fastest times this year and is a full 2 seconds faster than everyone else. He has talked about taking the world record into the 1:30’s and he is quite capable of it. Rudisha owns the world record of 1:41.01 and this is another record that could fall in London.

Rudisha first, Abubaker Kaki of Sudan second and Mohammed Aman of Ethiopia third.

800 meters, Women

This is going to be another interesting and highly competitive race.  Pamela Jelimo is the favorite here. She is coming into this Olympics as the defending champion, and she has been consistently under 2:00.00 in all of her 2012 races. 

Kenia Sinclair is the wild card. Quite possibly Jamaica’s best ever distance runner, Sinclair was in position for a medal in Beijing and faded down the stretch to 6^th place. She has run sparingly this season, but won the Jamaica Trials and could be a serious medal contender next month. 

Caster Semenya of South Africa, Fantu Magiso of Ethiopia and Irina Maracheva of Russia are all in the mix for a medal but Jelimo is the class of the field and should get the gold medal.

Jelimo first, Semenya second and Sinclair third.

Next week i'll give you part two, and yes, there will be more surprises!

Indecision 2012 track style

Last week at the US Olympic trials, Allyson Felix and Jeneba Tarmoh tied for third in the 100meter finals. The top three spots are guaranteed a spot on the Olympic team competing in the 100, with the fourth joining the pool for the relay team.  

Felix and Tarmoh are training partners, and while Felix is the most decorated and easily the best all-around US sprinter of the last decade, having competed successfully at the 100, 200 and 400 meters as well as every successful US relay team. Tarmoh is trying to secure her first Olympic berth having made her first US team last year at the World Championships.

My issue is not with the runners. They did their part. The only farce here is with the USATF who did not have a procedure in place to deal with this. In the wake of what I will call ‘Indecision 2012’ they attempted to cobble together a procedure.

This procedure starts with the suggestion that one of the two runners should decline a spot on the team. I will not even comment further on the absurdity of that. 

It goes on to say that the runners will be given the ‘option’ of a run-off or a coin toss. To which I ask why? They are runners. World class competitors. Trying to make their national team for the Olympics. 

Why would there be any other option than running again, winner proceeds and loser is out?

To make this even more of a joke, the former head of USA Track and Field on NBC’s coverage of the trials stated  ‘that in the hundred years plus of the World Championship and Olympic teams, this has never happened, ‘ as an explanation as to why there was no procedure in place.

Maybe it’s because I have spent so many years dealing with insurance, risk, litigation, policy interpretations and contracts that I look at some things the way I do. After so much time spent working in the “wonderful world of ‘What If’ “ It is ingrained in me to always make what is one of the most basic of conclusions, to wit: Just because it has never happened before does not mean it cannot happen.

To think that in a century of organization, and the most advanced technology available, they never considered this particular ‘what if’ is ridiculous. The indecisive nature of the proposed solution is also a joke.

So now we have an issue that won’t be decided until at least a week later, and is nothing short of a complete embarrassment for the USA Track and Field. 

I hope the Jamaican Olympic trial organizers take note and get their ducks in a row. The world is watching this and while the media fallout has not been as loud as I think it should be, do not for a second think that if mistakes are made in Kingston, it wont be noticed and ridiculed. 

Make notes, make adjustments, be professional and be prepared. 

Look for my Olympic track and field preview coming up next week after the Jamaican Olympic trials. I got some surprises for you, and if you're the gambling type, some long shots you might want to put a quid on. 

On your marks. Get set. Go!

Madison Square Garden, New York City

It’s been a brutal winter in New York, and the season has only just begun. Seven snowstorms in six weeks, record amounts of snow every time out, and everyone in New York is sinking into a winter funk.

But with the first call of “On your marks. Get set. Go!” one can see the light at the end of this tedious winter tunnel. Long the premier indoor track meet in New York (104 years and counting) the 2011 Millrose Games kicked off with a bang on January 28, 2011.

With each sharp turn, sharp spike and sharp elbow, high school runners, collegiate athletes and professionals all navigated the notoriously quick bends of the track hoping to cross that finish line in first place.

The Millrose Games has been the premier track meet in New York through its tenure. With the recent emergence of the Adidas Grand Prix Meet, the Millrose Games have ceded a lot of the spotlight, but as far as indoor meets go this is the one that gets the season going and quite frankly there is none better.

Millrose also represents the first installment of a series that has been in the works since the stunning (to some) sweep of the entire sprint schedule by Jamaica in the Beijing Olympics.

Yes, the Millrose Games is hosting the first installment of the USA v Jamaica sprint series.

In the city with perhaps the greatest number of expatriate Jamaicans, and gracing the same arena where Mohammed Ali, Willis Reed, Mark Messier and Patrick Ewing reached for greatness, a pantheon of elite sprinters will stake an official claim in a rivalry that has been the benchmark of sprinting for the last 60 years. Decades ago the names were different. George Rhoden, Herb McKenley, Merlene Ottey, Ollie Matson and Carl Lewis have given way to Usain Bolt, Asafa Powell, Carmelita Jeter and Tyson Gay.

The names have changed, but the rivalry remains unabated.

The USA v Jamaica race is a new wrinkle, one that will probably, hopefully energize the casual fan base in both countries. At bare minimum on this night it represented the starting gun for the beginning of a new track season, and all that comes with it.

Who knows if the competing athletes are aware of the historical rivalry of the two countries? Those same casual fans of track and field may think that the success of the Jamaican sprinters in Beijing came out of nowhere. They may not even be aware of the rich tradition of track and field in general and sprinting in particular in Jamaica.

But ever since the Helsinki Olympics of 1952 when the quartet of Wint, Laing, McKenley and Rhoden won the 4X400 relay gold medal, knocking the USA team into the silver medal, Jamaica has been the consistent overachievers of the sprinting world. In my lifetime I cannot recall a major track and field meet in which Jamaicans were not medal contenders, and I’m not even counting the fine runners of Jamaican descent (OJD) running for other countries.

On Friday night, Veronica Campbell-Brown, Nesta Carter, Lauryn Williams, Mike Rodgers and others toed the line in the indoors 60 meter dash at the Millrose Games hoping to stake a claim for sprint supremacy. For self and for country.

On a cold Friday night in New York, a day after 19 inches of snow blanketed the city, Veronica Campbell-Brown (L) who said in her post race press conference that she had ‘been in transit for over 36 hours’ trying to fly into the city, won the women's 60 meter dash ahead of Lauryn Williams and the Barber sisters. With Nesta Carter’s win in the men’s version and Vonette Dixon’s triumph in the hurdles(R), it is safe to say that Jamaica drew first blood. The point system showed that the US officially won the two race sprint series by virtue of their multiple runner up points in both events, but as Mike Rodgers of the US said in his press conference (seated on the left in the picture below next to Nesta Carter & Lauryn Williams) “The Jamaicans got us tonight. But we will see them at Penns.”

Yes indeed, Mr. Rodgers, we’ll see you at the Penn Relays. We’re coming to your neighborhood, and let the fun begin. Those races at Franklin Field in Philadelphia are called “USA v The World” but really, who do you think is representing the world in the sprints?

The track season has begun. On your marks. Get set. Go!